“New Study Shows…” – Why We Can’t Trust Science Reporting

The scientific method is a toolkit that provides the only reliable way to learn how things work in the real world. But some people have come to distrust it because science keeps changing its mind. It’s supposed to tell us “The Truth” in black and white and capital letters, but instead it’s all grey and

Screening Tests – Cumulative Incidence of False Positives

It’s easy to think of medical tests as black and white. If the test is positive, you have the disease; if it’s negative, you don’t. Even good clinicians sometimes fall into that trap. Based on the pre-test probability of the disease, a positive test result only increases the probability by a variable amount. An example: